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Crypto signal win rate benchmark
What is a good win rate for crypto trading signals?
There is no single good number, because win rate is set by where the targets sit. A signal with a target close to entry and a distant stop will win most of the time and still be a poor trade. Read win rate together with reward-to-risk. Drishti Pro's public record is 57.9% over 240 resolved signals at an average 1.36 reward-to-risk, with the full ledger downloadable.
Updated 2026-08-06 · 330 signals tracked
- 57.9%Win rate
- 1.36Avg R
- 11TP2 hits
- 330Signals
Win rate is the most quoted and least useful number in crypto signals. Quoted alone it is close to meaningless, because the person quoting it also chose where to put the targets — and target placement, not forecasting skill, is what mostly determines the figure.
Why win rate on its own tells you nothing
Take one identical market call and score it three ways. Put the take-profit a tenth of a percent above entry with the stop five percent below, and it wins almost every time. Put the take-profit five percent above and the stop a tenth of a percent below, and it almost never does. Same forecast. Opposite win rates.
This is why a 95% claim should increase your suspicion rather than your confidence. The easiest way to reach it is to set targets so close that price brushes them by accident, while the occasional loss runs far enough to wipe out a long streak of small wins.
The number that has to travel with it
Reward-to-risk is the distance to the target divided by the distance to the stop. At 1.0 the two are symmetric. Above 1.0 the target is further away, which makes wins harder and worth more. Drishti Pro averages 1.36, meaning targets sit meaningfully further from entry than stops do — so the 57.9% win rate was earned against targets that are harder to reach, not easier.
The pairing is what to benchmark. A 55% win rate at 1.4 reward-to-risk and a 90% win rate at 0.15 are very different systems, and only one of them survives a bad week.
How Drishti Pro's signals actually resolve
| How the signal ended | Signals | Share | Counted as |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reached TP1, closed at the TP1 floor | 128 | 40.1% | Counts as a win |
| Ran on to TP2 | 11 | 3.4% | Counts as a win |
| Stopped out before TP1 | 101 | 31.7% | Counts as a loss |
| Expired after 24h, neither target nor stop | 79 | 24.8% | Excluded |
| All resolved signals | 319 | 100% |
Reading down: 128 signals reached the first target and closed at it, 11 ran on to the second target, 101 hit the stop before either target, and 79 ran out the 24-hour clock without touching anything. The win rate of 57.9% is 139 divided by 240, the expiries excluded.
Long versus short
A directional split is one of the cheapest tests of whether a system is forecasting or just riding a trend. If nearly all the winners are long during a rising market, the record is measuring the market, not the model.
| Direction | Resolved | Won | Lost | Win rate | 95% interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long | 132 | 75 | 57 | 56.8% | 48–65% |
| Short | 108 | 64 | 44 | 59.3% | 50–68% |
132 resolved signals were long at 56.8%, and 108 were short at 59.3%. The two sides are close enough that the record is not obviously a disguised long-only bet, which is the failure mode this table exists to catch.
How to sanity-check any claimed win rate
- Ask where the targets sit. Get the average reward-to-risk. Without it, the win rate is not interpretable.
- Ask what happens to trades that go nowhere. A provider that counts them as wins inflates the rate. Ask for the count separately.
- Ask for the sample size and the start date. Thirty signals over a good fortnight is not evidence. Ask how many resolved signals the rate is computed from.
- Ask whether losers are ever removed. Then check whether an old losing signal you saw earlier is still there.
- Recompute it. If raw data exists, count the wins yourself. If it does not, treat the rate as marketing.
Our own numbers, with the caveats attached
Drishti Pro's record covers 319 resolved signals across 11 instruments since 22 July 2026. The win rate is 57.9%. The 95% interval around it is 51.6% to 64.0%, which is the honest width for a sample this size — the estimate is good enough to distinguish a working system from a broken one, and not precise enough to argue about a single percentage point.
The record is also short. It begins on 22 July 2026, and a few weeks of any market can flatter or punish a system regardless of its merits. The interval narrows and the picture firms up only as the ledger grows, which is the main reason it is published continuously rather than summarised once.
The verification page covers what makes a record checkable in the first place, and the open data page has the CSV if you would rather recount than take our word for it.
FAQ
What is a realistic win rate for crypto trading signals?
Anywhere from roughly 40% to 60% is normal for signals with reward-to-risk above 1, because harder targets are reached less often. Rates above 90% almost always mean the targets sit very close to entry and the stops sit far away.
Is a higher win rate always better?
No. Win rate can be raised to almost any level by moving the take-profit closer and the stop further away. Read it alongside reward-to-risk, which Drishti Pro reports as 1.36 on average.
What is Drishti Pro's win rate?
57.9% over 240 resolved signals since 22 July 2026, at 1.36 average reward-to-risk. Expired signals are excluded from the rate and reported separately.
How many signals do you need before a win rate means anything?
Enough that the confidence interval is narrower than the difference you care about. At 240 resolved signals the interval around 57.9% is 51.6% to 64.0%, which is wide enough that small differences between providers are not distinguishable.
See Drishti Pro's live signals Get the app
Educational & illustrative only — not investment advice. Drishti Pro publishes AI-generated trade ideas and their public track record for information. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Do your own research.