AAVEUSD long — 31 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 101.0015 and stopped out at 98.1 after 5.8 hours, closing at -2.87%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-31 01:36 |
| Entry | 101.0015 |
| Stop-loss | 98.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 103.6128 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 105.3537 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 98.1 |
| Realized P&L | -2.87% |
| Time open | 5.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bullish 4/4 with EMA stacks bull-aligned across 5m/15m/1h/4h, ADX_1h 20.8 rising (slope +1.8), Hurst 0.53, HMM calm — a genuine but mild bull trend, choppiness 57 keeps it modest. 2. LEAN CHECK: evidence clearly favors long — trend, positioning, and OI all tilt up; no coherent short case beyond stretched z-score. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long with confirming flow — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.95, oi_15m_z +2.72, agg_oi +6.9% 24h), top-trader pos ratio 1.44 / account ratio 1.72 long-skewed, funding still mild positive with positive momentum, price +5.7% 24h pressing right at the 5d/20d/90d high (-0.85%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling z_score +1.51 and RV 7d at 100th pctile suggest an extended move that could mean-revert; a failure to break the 90d high and rejection back below ~99 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 101.00, stop 98.10 (below the recent intraday base and the ER-noise band, ~2.9% risk), take_profit_1 105.40 as the breakout-extension stretch above the 90d high (~4.35% reward, R:R ~1.5), reachable given avg 24h traversal ~2.9% plus fresh breakout momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but extended into resistance and a sub-50% bull-regime WR temper the odds.
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