AAVEUSD long — 2 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 92.58 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 92.39 with a price move of -0.21%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-02 10:15 |
| Entry | 92.58 |
| Stop-loss | 90.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 94.587 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 95.925 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 92.39 |
| Realized P&L | -0.21% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX ~26 with negative slope (-5.9, fading), mtf mixed (0/4 alignment), 1h EMA bear-aligned but 5m bull-aligned and 4h mixed, Hurst 0.57, calm HMM — a fading/transitional tape rather than a clean trend, tagged bear_trend but decaying. 2. LEAN CHECK: flow tilts modestly long — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.19, recent-half +4.6%), agg OI +0.45%, taker 1.63 last hour, top-trader pos ratio 1.55 long-skewed, net 4h/12h moves positive; deeply negative funding z (-1.80) signals shorts are paying, a squeeze fuel setup — lean long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: rising OI into positive short-term momentum with heavily long-skewed top traders and negative funding (crowded/paying shorts) supports a continuation bounce off the 5d/20d low (+3.58% above), a pattern that has won twice recently on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h EMA is bear-aligned with ADX fading and price -9% below 5d high; failure to hold above ~$91 with taker flow rolling back under 1.0 invalidates the bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 92.58, stop below recent structure at 90.35 (~2.4% risk, beyond the near-term hold level), stretch TP at 96.10 (~3.8% reward, ~1.5x risk) toward the fading 1h resistance / mean-revert target, reachable given avg 24h traversal 3.47% and p90 daily range 8.2%. 6. EXPECTATION: modest lean in a chop-prone regime with only 45% asset WR.
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