AAVEUSD long — 7 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 89.6429 and hit its target at 90.7872 after 1.2 hours, closing at +1.28%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-07 00:27 |
| Entry | 89.6429 |
| Stop-loss | 88.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 90.7872 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 91.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 90.7872 |
| Realized P&L | +1.28% |
| Time open | 1.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 19.2 fading (slope -3.4), adx_20 21.1, choppiness 50.1, ER-10 0.02 / ER-30 0.05 (near-zero directional cleanliness), Hurst 0.47, HMM calm, alignment 0/4 mixed — this is a fading, range-bound tape with a weak 1h/4h bear EMA stack but no persistence. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly two-sided — 4h/1h EMAs bear-aligned and price z-score -1.16 lean short, but OI is accelerating_up (oi_15m_z +1.64, recent-half +2.1%), top-traders long-skewed (pos ratio 1.43), funding positive, and net 12h move +1.55% is a bounce off the 5d low; on balance the short-term flow (rising OI + positive taker 1.06 + bounce) faintly favors a long continuation of the reclaim off the low. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: thin long — price sits +1.9% off the 5d/20d/90d low with a +1.55% 12h reclaim, accelerating_up OI and top-trader long tilt suggest fresh longs supporting a mean-reversion bounce from the deeply negative z-score (-1.16). 4. PRE-MORTEM: the 1h/4h bear EMA stack reasserts and price rolls back toward the 5d low, invalidating the bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.64; stop below the recent reclaim base at 88.05 (~1.77% ≈ 0.8x atr_pct_4h, structural invalidation under the bounce origin); target 91.55 (~2.13%, R:R ~1.2x) at the prior 12h swing / 5d-high approach, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with weak trend and low ER means high expire risk; bounce is thin.
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