AAVEUSD long — 10 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 92.1053 and stopped out at 90.546 after 13.1 hours, closing at -1.69%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 01:53 |
| Entry | 92.1053 |
| Stop-loss | 90.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 93.4521 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 94.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.44 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 90.546 |
| Realized P&L | -1.69% |
| Time open | 13.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 10.35 (deep chop), adx_20 8.63, choppiness 52.7, ER-10 0.06 / ER-30 0.08 (near-zero directional cleanliness), Hurst 0.35 (mean-reverting), HMM calm, RV 24h at 28th pctile — a low-vol, range-bound tape; 15m bull-aligned, 5m/1h mixed, 4h bear-aligned. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly long — top-trader positioning is meaningfully long-tilted (pos_ratio 1.48, account_ratio 1.35), price sits at the 5d-high (+0.0%) and +0.88 z-score, and net moves are all mildly positive (24h +1.22%, 12h +0.58%, 4h +0.33%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning/structure — top-traders lean long while price is pressing the 5d high, and aggregated OI is building (+0.62% 24h) suggesting fresh interest into the level; this asset's own recent wins came from these same fast-TF-bull + top-trader-long reads. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker_buy_sell 1h at 0.83 (net selling) plus 4h bear EMA stack and OI momentum accelerating_down — if sellers press, the 5d-high rejects and this fails quickly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent 1h swing / z-score support ~90.55 (invalidates the long); entry 92.11; with atr/rv modest, stop distance ~1.68% is ~0.4x rv_24h daily range, appropriate; TP1 stretch at 94.35 (~2.43%, ~1.44x stop) targeting extension above the 20d-high overhead. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with a thin lean, meaningful expire risk given ER near zero.
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