AAVEUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 107.0032 and hit its target at 108.8613 after 48 minutes, closing at +1.74%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 09:11 |
| Entry | 107.0032 |
| Stop-loss | 104.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 108.8613 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 110.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.07 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 108.8613 |
| Realized P&L | +1.74% |
| Time open | 48 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 with 5m/15m/1h bull EMA-stacked (4h mixed), 1h ADX 54.3 rising (slope +5.06), choppiness 24.8 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.50 moderately clean, Hurst 0.48 neutral, HMM calm — a powerful, accelerating bull impulse (+8.5% 24h) but deeply stretched. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — trend, OI acceleration and top-trader positioning all point up; the counter-case is exhaustion (1h RSI 72 / 4h RSI 87, rolling z +3.90, RV at 100th pctile, sitting right at 5d/20d/90d high). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow+OI — accelerating_up, oi_15m_z +3.98, agg OI +16.5%, top-trader pos ratio 1.35 rising (+0.11 over 4h) confirming fresh long conviction into the breakout, fully trend-aligned. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme overextension — RSI 87 on 4h, z +3.90, RV 100th pctile means any long-unwind snaps back hard; a break below the recent breakout shelf (~104.5) invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the intraday shelf at 104.10 (~2.7% risk, ~within the 5.6% avg 7d range); stretch TP at 110.10, ~2.9% above and ~1.14x the stop distance, an honest extension toward round-number resistance, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but stretched near overbought — modest edge with elevated snap-back risk.
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