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AAVEUSD long — 22 Aug 2026 (stopped out)

This long on AAVEUSD entered at 126.15 and stopped out at 121.4 after 2.9 hours, closing at -3.77%.

AssetAAVEUSD
Directionlong
Issued (UTC)2026-08-22 12:27
Entry126.15
Stop-loss121.4
Take-profit 1129.06
Take-profit 2 (stretch)131
Reward:risk at entry1.02
Outcomestopped out
Close price121.4
Realized P&L-3.77%
Time open2.9 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, 1h ADX 41.6 (strong trend) but slope negative (-7.6, fading fast), choppiness 45.9 (mid), ER-10 0.004 (path netting nowhere last 10 bars — momentum stalled), ER-30 0.42 moderate, Hurst 0.56 mild persistence, HMM volatile 1.0 — a +15.7% 24h bull impulse now decelerating hard at the 5d/20d/90d high. 2. LEAN CHECK: long — the entire HTF stack and top-trader positioning point up; but this is deeply extended (z-score +3.06, 4h RSI 85, RV 93rd pctile). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend alignment (4/4 full_bullish, ADX>40) reinforced by top-trader pos ratio 1.53 (leaning long) and agg OI +15.6% (fresh money in) — trend-aligned continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: ER-10 at 0.004 and adx_1h_slope -7.6 with oi_momentum accelerating_down + oi_change_recent_half -2.1% signal the impulse is exhausting AT the high — a stall/mean-revert here is the real risk given z +3.06 and 4h RSI 85. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 126.15, at 5d high; stop below recent structure/consolidation shelf at 121.4 (~3.8% risk, within the ~9% 7d range but sized for stalling momentum); stretch target 132.0 (~4.65%) clamps to 4% → but keeping RR>=1: place TP at 130.8 (~3.7%, RR ~0.97) — nudge to 131.0 for RR ~1.02. 6. EXPECTATION: fading momentum at extension caps upside odds; honest split with meaningful expire.

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