AAVEUSD long — 24 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 140.83 and stopped out at 136.4 after 1.3 hours, closing at -3.15%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-24 09:09 |
| Entry | 140.83 |
| Stop-loss | 136.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 143.572 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 145.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 136.4 |
| Realized P&L | -3.15% |
| Time open | 1.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/15m/4h EMA stacks bull_aligned but 5m bear_aligned (2/4 mixed), 1h ADX 35.3 with NEGATIVE slope -4.06 (fading), 4h ADX 52.3 but 4h RSI 77 (deeply overbought), choppiness 64.9 (range-bound), ER-10 0.053 (path netting nowhere), HMM volatile 0.995 — a +12.8% 24h impulse now stalling at the 5d/20d/90d high (-2.2% off). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long — HTF trend, OI accel and top-trader positioning tilt up, but 4h overbought + fading 1h ADX + short-term negative net moves (net_4h -2.2%, net_12h -1.98%) argue this is a pullback within an uptrend, so I take the trend-aligned long at lower conviction. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning/flow — top_trader_pos_ratio 1.65 rising (+0.093 over 4h), agg_oi +22.2% with taker 1.29 fresh buy tilt; trend-aligned with bull EMA stack on 1h/4h. 4. PRE-MORTEM: this is a stalled overbought impulse (RSI-4h 77, rolling z +2.05, oi_momentum accelerating_down, ER 0.05) — if the 5d high fails to reclaim and price rolls over, longs get trapped like the three -3.5% losses in the attribution. 5. LEVELS: entry 140.83, stop below the recent 4h swing / consolidation floor at 136.10 (~3.36% risk, within the ~11.9% 7d range and RV — a genuine invalidation of the pullback-buy), TP1 stretch 145.40 (~3.25% up, structural retest toward the 5d high at ~144, R:R ~0.97 — tighten stop). Adjust stop to 136.40 for R:R ~1.0. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought stall in a bull trend with mixed short-term momentum; modest edge, meaningful expire risk.
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