AAVEUSD long — 24 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 142.77 and stopped out at 137.6 after 4.1 hours, closing at -3.62%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-24 04:24 |
| Entry | 142.77 |
| Stop-loss | 137.6 |
| Take-profit 1 | 146.1965 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 148.4808 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 137.6 |
| Realized P&L | -3.62% |
| Time open | 4.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish across 5m/15m/1h/4h, 1h ADX 38.9 but slope NEGATIVE (-1.98, fading), 4h ADX 52.4 with 4h RSI 78.0 (overbought), choppiness 60.4 (mid/rangey), ER-10 0.097 (path netting nowhere last 10 bars — momentum stalled at the highs), HMM volatile 0.995 — a violent +15.7% 24h bull impulse pinned right at the 5d/20d/90d high (-0.63%). 2. LEAN CHECK: long — HTF trend intact, top-trader pos ratio 1.56 and agg OI +31.9% support the bull side; the counter-signals (fading ADX, stalled ER, overbought 4h RSI, rolling z +2.32) argue for lower conviction, not a short with no reclaim structure. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — full bull MTF stack plus top-trader crowding long (pos ratio 1.56, account 1.47) and OI expansion into the move; taker ratio 1.02 mildly bid. 4. PRE-MORTEM: ER-10 0.097 + adx slope negative + oi_momentum decelerating say the impulse is exhausting; a rejection off the 90d high back below ~138 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 142.77; stop 137.60 (below the recent consolidation shelf / prior breakout, ~3.6% — inside the ~6.2% typical 24h traversal and justified by 184% RV); stretch TP 149.50 (~4.7% → clamped ~1.3x stop dist ≈ 149.5 target well within R:R>=1 and structural next leg toward round 150). 6. EXPECTATION: overbought + stalled ER cap upside odds; meaningful expire given decelerating momentum.
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