AAVEUSD long — 2 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 129.0177 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 129.63 with a price move of +0.47%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-02 09:03 |
| Entry | 129.0177 |
| Stop-loss | 124.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.9471 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 133.9 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 129.63 |
| Realized P&L | +0.47% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h/4h EMA bull-stacked (only 5m mixed), 1h ADX 24.1 but slope negative (-0.29, fading), choppiness 39.9 (edge of trending), ER-10 0.07 / ER-30 0.11 and Hurst 0.37 (path nets nowhere, mean-reverting) — bull-tilted HTF but low-conviction, drifting chop with a fresh 4h pullback (net_move_4h -3.84%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — +3.02% 24h, HTF bull-stacked, top-trader position ratio 2.00 and account ratio 1.67 (strong long tilt), OI accelerating_up (+9.1% recent half, oi z +1.18), funding positive z +1.01 — the buyers dominate despite the 4h dip. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/positioning — top-trader long tilt 2.0x + accelerating OI + 5m RSI 21.8 oversold into a bull-stacked HTF sets up a mean-reversion bounce; this is the well-worn AAVE dip-buy that this asset's track record (58.8% wr) and same-regime signals repeatedly won. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the -3.84% 4h momentum extends and 5d-high rejection turns into a trend break below the 5d-low area — sustained lower highs on 1h invalidates the bounce. 5. LEVELS: mark 129.02; stop below the recent swing / 5d-low buffer at 124.85 (~3.2% risk, within ~1x the ~6% daily range given elevated RV); stretch TP at 134.45 (~4.2%→clamped, but set inside 4% at 133.90) — reward:risk ~1.15. Placing TP at 133.90 (R:R ~1.17). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold-bounce with HTF support but choppy path — p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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