AAVEUSD long — 2 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 135.07 and stopped out at 131.55 after 2.4 hours, closing at -2.61%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-02 05:33 |
| Entry | 135.07 |
| Stop-loss | 131.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 137.818 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 139.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 131.55 |
| Realized P&L | -2.61% |
| Time open | 2.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/4h EMA bull-stacked, 1h mixed → mtf "mixed"/transitional; 1h ADX 22.3 rising (+4.5 slope), choppiness 34.5 (trending), ER-10 0.68 (clean near-term) but ER-30 0.36 / Hurst 0.38 (mean-reverting longer path), HMM calm 0.999 — a strong bull impulse riding a bull-stacked HTF. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — +6.66% 24h, net_move +7.3% 4h, sitting at 5d high, OI accelerating_up. 3. THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/positioning — OI z +4.5/+4.8 accelerating_up (+14% recent half), top-trader pos ratio 2.00 and account ratio 1.61 (strong long tilt), taker 1.27, agg funding z +1.09 — real money leaning long into a fresh 5d-high breakout with EMA support. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across ALL TFs (5m 77, 15m 81, 4h 70) and z-score +1.91 / RV at 99.75pctile — this is an extended blow-off that mean-reverts if the +7% 4h impulse exhausts. 5. LEVELS: entry 135.07; stop below the impulse-origin / near-term structure at 131.55 (~2.6% risk, ~0.9x atr_pct_4h, sane vs rv); stretch TP at 139.65 (~3.4% / ~1.3x stop distance) into blue-sky above 5d high, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum + flow favor continuation but overbought/extended caps p_tp1.
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