AAVEUSD long — 3 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 133.5247 and hit its target at 135.6999 after 17.9 hours, closing at +1.63%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-03 15:03 |
| Entry | 133.5247 |
| Stop-loss | 130.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 135.6999 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 137.15 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 135.6999 |
| Realized P&L | +1.63% |
| Time open | 17.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish MTF (4/4 EMA bull-stacked 5m/15m/1h/4h), 1h ADX 23 rising sharply (+7.06 slope), choppiness 39 (edge of trending), ER-10 0.48 near-term cleaner but ER-30 0.32 / Hurst 0.34 (longer path mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a genuine bull impulse on a bull-stacked HTF with AAVE's usual net-nowhere caveat over longer windows. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — +5.36% 24h, net_move +2.41% 4h / +4.85% 12h, sitting right at 5d/20d/90d high (-0.59%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +3.0, oi_15m_z +3.66, agg_oi +5.28%), top-trader pos ratio 2.27 (strong long tilt, rising +0.056 over 4h), taker 1.16 latest, all trend-aligned into a fresh high. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z_score +2.95 (stretched), RSI 65-70 across TFs (overbought), Hurst 0.34 — a mean-revert snapback from the extended high invalidates; loss of the 5d-high breakout base signals exhaustion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent breakout base / intraday structure at 130.35 (~2.38% risk, ~0.5x rv_24h, in line with prior AAVE stops); stretch target 137.15 (~2.72% up, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps) at a modest extension above the current high. 6. EXPECTATION: trend+flow favor continuation but overbought/stretched z-score and AAVE's mean-reverting longer path cap upside — modest edge.
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