AAVEUSD long — 7 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 132.1 and stopped out at 128.55 after 22.1 hours, closing at -2.69%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-07 15:25 |
| Entry | 132.1 |
| Stop-loss | 128.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 134.95 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 136.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.34 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 128.55 |
| Realized P&L | -2.69% |
| Time open | 22.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA bull-stacked (4h ADX 36 strong, 1h ADX 11 weak) but 5m/15m bear-aligned → mtf 0/4; ER-10 0.31 / ER-30 0.07 / Hurst 0.35 / choppiness 62 flag AAVE's classic net-nowhere mean-reverting chop, HMM calm 0.999 — bull HTF with a soft near-term pullback. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — HTF EMAs bull-stacked and top-traders lean heavily long (pos ratio 2.24, account 1.53), and this exact chop-pullback-in-uptrend setup has won 3 of last 5 same-regime signals. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is HTF trend alignment (1h+4h bull EMA stack, 4h ADX 36) plus top-trader positioning skew (pos ratio 2.24) — the near-term dip into a bull-stacked structure is the buyable pullback AAVE historically mean-reverts back up from. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI z-scores deeply negative (-2.3) with decelerating momentum and 1h taker 0.80 (sellers) — if the OI unwind accelerates and price loses the 5d-low proximity, the pullback becomes a trend break down. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 132.10; stop_loss 128.55 below the recent swing / near 5d-low buffer (~2.7% ≈ within rv/atr range for AAVE which travels ~2.5% in 24h and has 4h atr 2.5%); take_profit_1 136.85 (~3.6%, ~1.34x stop distance, structural pullback-recovery toward 5d-high band). 6. EXPECTATION: chop mean-reversion favors the long modestly but bearish micro flow caps it — p_tp1 46 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 17.
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