AAVEUSD long — 8 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 129.9088 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 128.83 with a price move of -0.83%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-08 16:18 |
| Entry | 129.9088 |
| Stop-loss | 127.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.7935 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 133.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 128.83 |
| Realized P&L | -0.83% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned (ADX 25.8) but 1h/5m mixed and 15m bear-aligned → mtf 0/4 transitional; ER-10 0.11 / ER-30 0.18 / Hurst 0.37 / choppiness 47.4 flag AAVE's classic net-nowhere mean-reverting chop, HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest LONG — HTF 4h bull base holds, top-traders lean heavily long (pos ratio 2.23, account ratio 1.23), and price sits +1.6% off the 5d low with a mild 4h up-tick (net_move_4h +0.32%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning — top-trader position ratio 2.23 plus 4h ADX 25.8 bull base and this asset's 30d track record of winning long-in-chop dip-buys (last 3 same-regime longs all won +2.4–3.3%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.90, agg_oi -3.5%) means leverage is bleeding out — a fresh break below the 5d low (~127.8) with expanding OI would invalidate the dip-buy. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the 5d-low shelf at 127.15 (~2.1% risk, ~0.5x rv_24h); stretch TP at 133.05 (~2.4% reward, R:R ~1.15, inside clamps) targeting the 15m/1h EMA reclaim zone. 6. EXPECTATION: chop favors the mean-revert bounce but weak OI caps upside — p_tp1 46 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 17.
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