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AAVEUSD long — 17 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 128.44 and hit its target at 131.356 after 8.8 hours, closing at +2.27%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-17 17:08 |
| Entry | 128.44 |
| Stop-loss | 124.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 131.356 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 133.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 131.356 |
| Realized P&L | +2.27% |
| Time open | 8.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 2/4 mixed (5m/15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h EMA mixed), 1h ADX 33.7 rising (+4.39 slope), ADX-20 23.9, ER-10 0.62 clean / ER-30 0.32 / choppiness 33.8 (trending edge), Hurst 0.46 — a fresh strong up-leg inside AAVE's broader mean-reverting chop; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: firm LONG — net_move_4h +2.57% / 12h +5.01% / 24h +12.26%, pinned at 5d/20d/90d high (-2.32%), OI expanding (+12.2% 24h, oi_5m_z +2.10). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + OI-backed breakout to new highs with rising ADX and top-trader position ratio 2.38 (strongly long-tilted) — trend-aligned continuation; this matches AAVE's winning long pattern in recent attribution. 4. PRE-MORTEM: overbought RSI (1h 75.8, 5m/15m ~72) plus taker ratio 0.85 (sellers active last hour) and decelerating OI momentum warn of exhaustion — a rejection back below ~126 kills it. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the 4h reclaim shelf at 124.60 (invalidation ~3% down, within 24h range of ~7.6%); stretch target 133.30 near next extension, R:R ~1.25. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but overbought + late-stage tempers it.
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