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AAVEUSD long — 18 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 134.296 and hit its target at 136.7284 after 6.8 hours, closing at +1.81%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-18 03:27 |
| Entry | 134.296 |
| Stop-loss | 130.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 136.7284 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 138.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.04 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 136.7284 |
| Realized P&L | +1.81% |
| Time open | 6.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf 2/4 mixed (5m/15m bull-aligned, 1h/4h EMA mixed), 1h ADX 40.5 rising (+2.63 slope), ADX-20 29.7, ER-10 0.39 / ER-30 0.56 / choppiness 39.5 (trending edge), Hurst 0.50 — a fresh strong up-leg inside AAVE's usual mean-reverting chop; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: firm LONG — net_move_4h +4.06% / 12h +6.33% / 24h +9.97%, pinned right at all its 5d/20d/90d highs (dist_from_high +0.000). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum + positioning cluster — top_trader_pos_ratio 2.57 (bulls heavily positioned, +0.18 over 4h), agg_OI +8.9% and Binance OI z +3.24 (fresh money into rising price), funding z +1.03 supportive not extreme; trend-aligned with the strong up-leg. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m/15m/1h RSI all deeply overbought (83/77/76) + z-score +2.78 + taker 1h 0.86 (sellers regaining) + OI decelerating — a stretched-into-highs pullback would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the recent intraday shelf at 130.4 (~2.9% risk, within AAVE's ~6-7% daily range given rv high); stretch TP 138.35 (~3.0%, R:R ~1.03) at round-number extension of the breakout, reachable given avg_move_24h 3.0% and current momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought stretch tempers TP odds vs base rate.
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