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AAVEUSD long — 19 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 144.6326 and stopped out at 140.15 after 18.1 hours, closing at -3.10%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-19 03:27 |
| Entry | 144.6326 |
| Stop-loss | 140.35 |
| Take-profit 1 | 147.283 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 149.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 140.15 |
| Realized P&L | -3.10% |
| Time open | 18.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bullish 4/4, 1h ADX 61.6 rising (+3.33 slope), ADX-20 50.5, ER-30 0.57 / choppiness 41.6, Hurst 0.55, HMM calm 0.999 — one of the firmest AAVE bull legs in the set. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — net_move_4h +3.23% / 12h +4.28% / 24h +7.16%, pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs, OI accelerating_up (+14.7% 24h, oi_15m_z +3.52). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — full bull stack with strengthening ADX, top-trader pos ratio 2.73 and account ratio 1.71 firmly long, OI expanding into new highs; this asset's own regime record is a wall of bull_trend wins. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI 75.7 (1h) / 79.9 (4h) overbought plus z-score +3.47 and taker ratio 0.90 (buyers fading this hour) — a mean-reversion flush back through the recent breakout shelf would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the breakout/intraday-support shelf at 140.35 (~2.96% back, ~0.4x rv_24h, sane); stretch target 149.05 (~3.06% up), R:R ~1.03, reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 3.67% and momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but overbought/extended tempers upside odds.
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