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AAVEUSD long — 21 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 147.96 and stopped out at 143.1 after 6.6 hours, closing at -3.28%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-21 09:23 |
| Entry | 147.96 |
| Stop-loss | 143.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 151.511 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 153.8784 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 143.1 |
| Realized P&L | -3.28% |
| Time open | 6.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h/5m EMA bull-aligned, 15m mixed (alignment 4/4 tagged, mtf mixed), 1h ADX 24.6 rising (+4.25 slope), ADX-20 20.4, ER-10 0.56 / choppiness 35.5 (trending), Hurst 0.60, HMM calm 0.999 — a genuine bull impulse strengthening after a strong 24h push. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear LONG — net_move 4h +7.37% / 12h +8.01% / 24h +8.66%, pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs, OI accelerating_up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend + flow confluence — HTF bull stack with rising ADX, aggregated OI +8.19% 24h accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +6.05), top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.53), funding still slightly negative/z -1.66 (no crowded-long froth) — momentum has fuel, not exhaustion. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across all TFs (5m 88, 1h 75, 4h 75) and RV at 100th pctile + z-score +2.39 — a mean-reversion pullback from a parabolic +8% day would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 147.96; stop below the intraday breakout shelf at 143.10 (~3.3% risk, ~0.8x the 4.16% daily traversal); stretch TP at 154.30 (~4.3% → clamped to 4% at ~153.88; R:R ~1.2 vs stop, a reachable extension of the trend). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but overbought/parabolic risk of a pause — p_tp1 46, p_sl 33, p_expire 21.
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