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AAVEUSD long — 14 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 162.86 and stopped out at 158.95 after 7.9 hours, closing at -2.40%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-14 04:35 |
| Entry | 162.86 |
| Stop-loss | 158.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 165.914 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 167.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.30 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 158.95 |
| Realized P&L | -2.40% |
| Time open | 7.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm chop with a mild bull tilt — mtf_alignment mixed (0/4 but 5m bull_aligned, 1h bear_aligned), ADX_1h 22.5 barely trending (slope +0.08 flat), choppiness 48.0 (neutral), ER-10 0.52 / ER-30 0.19 (near-term clean, longer-horizon noisy), Hurst 0.44 (mild mean-reversion), HMM calm 0.9999; net +0.58% 4h / +1.71% 12h / +1.29% 24h — recovering off lows (+5.98% above 5d/20d/90d low, -1.10 z below 20d mean). 2. LEAN CHECK: Not two-sided — a modest long lean: fresh buy-side flow and OI accumulation off a washed-out base. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Flow/OI cluster — taker_buy_sell_ratio_1h 1.99 (strong recent buying), oi_5m_z +1.89 / oi_15m_z +1.91 with oi_momentum accelerating_up, top_trader_pos_ratio 1.84 (longs loaded), agg_funding_z -3.77 (deeply negative funding = shorts paying, squeeze fuel); price has reclaimed off the 5d low and is grinding up with building long OI. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h EMA stack is still bear_aligned and 4h RSI 45 — a rejection back below ~160 would confirm the recovery stalled and shorts regain control. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 162.86; stop 158.95 just below the recent reclaim shelf / round 160 support (~2.4% = ~0.6x daily range); stretch TP 167.95 at the 5d-high retest zone (~3.1% up, R:R ~1.3). 6. EXPECTATION: washed-base recovery with flow support but weak HTF trend — p_tp1 43, p_sl 36, p_expire 21.
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