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AAVEUSD long — 19 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 150.29 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 148.21 with a price move of -1.38%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-19 11:39 |
| Entry | 150.29 |
| Stop-loss | 146.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 153.416 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 155.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 148.21 |
| Realized P&L | -1.38% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional tape with a bear tilt — 15m/1h EMA bear_aligned, 5m/4h mixed, mtf label mixed; ADX_1h 18 slope -1.99 (weak, fading trend), choppiness 49 (neutral), ER-10 0.36/ER-30 0.06 (noisy, nets nowhere), Hurst 0.50 neutral, HMM calm 0.9999; price -1.88% 24h, net -1.97% 4h / -1.16% 12h — soft recent downdraft. 2. LEAN CHECK: Two-sided but a modest bull lean — price sits at rolling z -1.27 (stretched below mean), only +2.6% off the 5d/20d/90d low with RSI 29-31 oversold on 5m/15m, and top-trader POS ratio 2.29 (heavily net-long smart money) vs a weak fading bear trend; this mean-revert/dip-buy setup has won 4 of the last 6 AAVE attributions and 2 of last 3 same-regime chop longs. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Oversold mean-reversion long — deep RSI oversold + z -1.27 + proximity to multi-period lows, with top traders leaning long (pos ratio 2.29) into a trend that is fading not accelerating (ADX slope -1.99), argues for a bounce off this base. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI momentum accelerating_down + taker 0.93 (sellers active) + agg OI -1.64% says the downdraft could extend; a clean break below the 5d low (~146.4) invalidates the bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 150.29; stop 146.05 below the 5d/20d low cluster (~2.8% ≈ 0.95x avg 24h traversal, structural invalidation); take_profit_1 155.50 at the recent reclaim shelf — reward 5.21 / risk 4.24 ≈ 1.23 R:R, inside the 1.5x/4% clamps and reachable within 24h given avg 24h move ~2.9% + atr_pct_4h 2.49. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce with countertrend risk — p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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