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AAVEUSD long — 20 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 156.1147 and stopped out at 152.555 after 1.1 hours, closing at -2.28%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-20 14:09 |
| Entry | 156.1147 |
| Stop-loss | 152.8 |
| Take-profit 1 | 158.6859 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 160.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.29 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 152.555 |
| Realized P&L | -2.28% |
| Time open | 1.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional tape — 5m EMA bull_aligned, 15m/4h mixed, 1h bear_aligned, alignment 0/4, mtf label mixed; ADX_1h 19.6 slope -0.14 (weak, flat), choppiness 42.9 (neutral), ER-10 0.42 / ER-30 0.11 (noisy, nets little), Hurst 0.45 mild mean-revert, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Fresh upside momentum dominates the soft bear structure — +5.1% 24h, net +5.5% 4h / +3.2% 12h, agg OI +7.9% 24h building into the move, top-trader pos ratio 2.22 (strongly long), taker 1.03 and 24h taker history tilting buy-heavy — lean long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Flow+positioning cluster — accelerating OI into a sharp +5% 24h push with top-traders heavily net-long (2.22 pos ratio) and short-side liq share dominant (only 0.30 long-liq share = shorts getting hit) — momentum-with-flow long, consistent with this asset's long-biased 30d track record (57.9% wr, nearly all recent same-regime calls were long). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI stretched overbought across 5m(82.9)/15m(83.1)/1h(70) with OI momentum "accelerating_down" on the recent-half read — an exhaustion fade back below the 4h reclaim invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Mark 156.11; stop below intraday structure at 152.80 (~2.1% risk, inside rv context); stretch target 160.40 (~2.75% / ~1.3x risk R:R ~1.29) at prior 5d-high resistance region, reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h ~2.96% and the live impulse. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought stretch tempers upside odds; p_tp1 45 / p_sl 37 / p_expire 18.
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