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AAVEUSD long — 21 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on AAVEUSD entered at 158.6006 and stopped out at 154.83 after 8.2 hours, closing at -2.38%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-21 15:39 |
| Entry | 158.6006 |
| Stop-loss | 154.9 |
| Take-profit 1 | 161.4202 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 163.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 154.83 |
| Realized P&L | -2.38% |
| Time open | 8.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional tape — 5m/15m EMA bull_aligned, 1h/4h mixed, alignment 2/4; ADX_1h 25.6 slope -0.54 (weak trend barely formed, fading), choppiness 53.9 (neutral), ER-10 0.53 semi-clean vs ER-30 0.28 noisy, Hurst 0.41 mild mean-revert, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: Fresh upside momentum + top-trader long skew lean long — net +1.50% 4h, +4.10% 24h, price pinned at 5d high (+0.00% from 5d_high), RSI 60-70 across TFs; the short case (fading ADX, soft -funding, accelerating_down OI) is real but momentum/positioning tilt wins. 3. THESIS: Top-trader pos_ratio 2.29 (account ratio 1.63) with 4h delta still positive, plus near-term bull EMA stack and price breaking the 5d high — trend-aligned continuation; this asset's track record (57.9% wr) and recent same-regime longs favor the long side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oi_momentum accelerating_down + agg funding z -1.85 says longs are bleeding out; a rejection back under ~155 (the broken consolidation) would invalidate the breakout and flip to fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 158.60; stop 154.90 below the ~155 reclaim shelf (-2.33%, ~0.6x the 6.0% 7d daily range, structural); TP1 stretch 163.30 (+2.96%, R:R ~1.27, inside 1.5x/4% clamps) targeting the next extension above the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum real but fading trend + weak funding tempers it.
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