AAVEUSD short — 29 Jul 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 96.9984 and stopped out at 98.85 after 2.4 hours, closing at -1.91%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-29 11:06 |
| Entry | 96.9984 |
| Stop-loss | 98.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 95.332 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 94.221 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 98.85 |
| Realized P&L | -1.91% |
| Time open | 2.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMAs bull_aligned but 5m/15m bear_aligned (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed), ADX ~22 fading (slope -1.07), Hurst 0.57 mildly persistent, ER-30 near-zero (0.04) with choppiness 37 — a cooling HTF uptrend rolling into short-term downside pressure. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow is decisively down — net_move_4h -1.33%, 12h -3.90%, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.52), agg OI -4.0%, latest taker 0.775 — the tape leans short despite the HTF bull labels. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: OI unwinding hard into a falling price (accelerating_down, oi_change_recent_half -6.68%) with 5m/15m bear stacks and RSI oversold-but-not-turned signals continuation of the pullback; top-trader long ratio 1.60 is a crowded-long risk that fuels further downside as they capitulate. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m RSI 24.7 is deeply oversold and price sits +6.7% off 5d low — a sharp mean-reversion bounce reclaiming ~98.5 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 96.99, stop 98.85 (above the intraday reclaim zone / prior consolidation, ~1.9%), TP1 stretch 94.10 (toward the 12h down-leg extension, ~2.98% = ~1.55x risk), reachable given avg_move_24h 3.28% and RV pctile 97%. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold RSI caps conviction and chop history here is coin-flip.
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