AAVEUSD short — 4 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 92.12 and hit its target at 90.458 after 4.9 hours, closing at +1.80%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-04 10:27 |
| Entry | 92.12 |
| Stop-loss | 94.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 90.458 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 89.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.36 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 90.458 |
| Realized P&L | +1.80% |
| Time open | 4.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 9.3, adx_20 8.1, choppiness 65, ER-10 0.01/ER-30 0.05, Hurst 0.49, HMM calm — this is textbook dead chop with no directional persistence; mtf tagged mixed despite the 4/4 label. 2. LEAN CHECK: 5m/1h EMAs bear-aligned and net 4h/12h/24h moves all mildly negative, but top-traders sit long-skewed (pos ratio 1.42) and 1h taker 0.635 shows recent selling — mildly two-sided but the near-term EMA stack + soft downward drift + Extreme Fear tilt it marginally short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: thin short lean — 5m/1h bear-aligned EMAs, funding_z negative and unwinding (funding_momentum -0.22), agg OI -2.7% (positions leaving into weakness), price sitting 8% below 5d high with rolling z -1.12; no bull impulse to reclaim. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader long positioning (1.42) + oi_momentum accelerating_up + Extreme Fear at 25 is a classic bounce setup — a reclaim of ~93.3 would flip this. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 92.12, stop above recent structure/oi-momentum invalidation at 94.15 (2.2%), TP1 stretch at 89.35 (3.0%, ~1.36x risk) toward the 5d-low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: chop tape with low ADX means high expire odds; short WR on this asset 43% but chop degrades edge — p_tp1 37, p_sl 33, p_expire 30.
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