AAVEUSD short — 5 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 90.96 and hit its target at 89.364 after 10.4 hours, closing at +1.75%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-05 15:22 |
| Entry | 90.96 |
| Stop-loss | 93.08 |
| Take-profit 1 | 89.364 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 88.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.25 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 89.364 |
| Realized P&L | +1.75% |
| Time open | 10.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 16.5 (fading, slope -1.1), adx_20 15.1, choppiness 65.7, ER-10 0.41 but ER-30 only 0.11, Hurst 0.47, HMM calm — this is a range-bound/chop tape with only a weak 1h bear EMA stack and mixed everything else (alignment 2/4, transitional). 2. LEAN CHECK: mildly two-sided — 1h EMA bear-aligned, price z-score -1.14 and near the low of a range (5d high -6.5%, 5d low +1.8%), funding_z negative/unwinding — but top-traders lean long (pos ratio 1.38, account 1.27) and net 24h move is mildly positive (+0.72%). The freshest impulse is a slight fade (net -0.24% 4h) with OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -0.87, oi_change_recent_half -1.7%) — OI unwinding into a soft bounce favors the short side modestly, consistent with the winning short attributions on this asset. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short — the strongest cluster is flow/OI: aggregated and Binance OI unwinding (accelerating_down) while price holds only a mild bounce and 1h EMA stack is bear-aligned; longs bleeding without conviction. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of the ~92.5 area (5d congestion / prior support-turned-resistance) with rising OI and taker >1.1 would flip this to a bull continuation and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 90.96; stop above the 92.6 structural pivot at 93.08 (~2.3% risk, within ~0.5x the 4.8% 7d range); take_profit_1 stretch at 88.30 (~2.9% away, R:R ~1.3, a reach toward the 5d-low band and prior swing support) — inside 1.5x/4% clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: chop-degraded weak-trend tape caps conviction; p_tp1 42, p_sl 34, p_expire 24.
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