AAVEUSD short — 6 Aug 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 89.2455 and hit its target at 88.1082 after 8.2 hours, closing at +1.27%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-06 01:52 |
| Entry | 89.2455 |
| Stop-loss | 91.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 88.1082 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 87.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 88.1082 |
| Realized P&L | +1.27% |
| Time open | 8.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h ADX 29.5 rising (slope +4.4), 15m ADX 32.5, 5m/15m/1h EMAs all bear-aligned (4h mixed), choppiness 45.7, ER-10 0.20/ER-30 0.12, Hurst 0.48, HMM calm — a genuine but modest bear trend with strengthening ADX. 2. LEAN CHECK: short — EMA stack bearish across the fast TFs, fresh downside momentum (net -0.97% 4h, -2.47% 12h), price at 5d low and z-score -1.52, agg OI unwinding (-3.08% 24h). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — the short EMA stack plus rising ADX and active negative net moves define a persistent down-leg; this asset's track record heavily favors shorts (multiple +1.7-2.8% wins). 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-traders sit long-skewed (pos ratio 1.42, account 1.29) and price sits at the 5d/20d low with z -1.52 — a bounce/short-squeeze off oversold is the main risk; Binance funding negative and taker 1.11 hint at mild buying support. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above recent 4h swing/EMA reclaim at 91.10 (~2.08% above entry, ~0.4x rv_24h, within range); take_profit_1 at 87.35, a stretch below toward the next structural shelf, ~2.12% and R:R ~1.02. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but oversold at the low tempers it.
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