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AAVEUSD short — 6 Aug 2026 (stopped out)

This short on AAVEUSD entered at 87.98 and stopped out at 89.87 after 13.8 hours, closing at -2.15%.

AssetAAVEUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-08-06 10:11
Entry87.98
Stop-loss89.85
Take-profit 186.624
Take-profit 2 (stretch)85.72
Reward:risk at entry1.21
Outcomestopped out
Close price89.87
Realized P&L-2.15%
Time open13.8 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: full_bearish 4/4 MTF, 1h ADX 35.8 rising (slope +1.35), adx_20 28.8, choppiness 43, Hurst 0.44, HMM calm — a genuine, strengthening bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: short clearly favored — EMA bear-aligned across all 4 TFs, fresh downside momentum (-0.92% 4h, -2.41% 12h, -3.81% 24h), price at 5d/20d/90d low, z-score -1.72. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short with confirming flow — OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.50), agg OI -1.52%, 4h liqs 99.99% long-side (longs getting flushed), price making fresh lows; the trend cluster + flow cluster + structure cluster all align. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 29.7 oversold and price sitting exactly at multi-day lows with top-traders still long-skewed (pos ratio 1.47) — an oversold bounce/reclaim of ~$90 would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss at 89.85 (above the 4h swing and reclaim zone, ~2.1% risk, within the ~2.2% 24h traversal / ATR), take_profit_1 at 85.72 (next structural leg lower, ~2.57% below entry, R:R ~1.22). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but oversold late-stage entry keeps p_expire meaningful.

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