AAVEUSD short — 24 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 132.1043 and stopped out at 135.85 after 3.1 hours, closing at -2.84%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-24 23:09 |
| Entry | 132.1043 |
| Stop-loss | 135.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 129.8517 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 128.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 135.85 |
| Realized P&L | -2.84% |
| Time open | 3.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h EMA stacks bull_aligned but 5m bear/15m mixed → alignment 0/4, 1h ADX 26 with slightly positive slope, 4h ADX 47.6 but 4h RSI 62 rolling over, choppiness 58.9 (mid), ER-30 0.19 (netting nowhere), HMM volatile 0.995 — a bull structure now unwinding hard with net_move_24h -6.8% and net_move_12h -3.8%. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — momentum is clearly down and OI is collapsing (accelerating_down), even though HTF EMA stacks still read bull. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the dominant cluster is flow/OI capitulation — agg_oi -20.7%, Binance OI -21.8%, oi_5m_z -1.5, oi_momentum accelerating_down, taker 1h 0.634 (heavy selling), latest hourly ratios sub-0.75 — a leveraged-long unwind driving price down 6.8% in 24h; the HTF bull EMAs are lagging and rolling over from overbought. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 1.80, account 1.64) and funding still positive (z +1.12) — if this is a shakeout that holds the 5d low (+38% above), price could reclaim the 1h EMA stack and squeeze shorts. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 132.10; stop above the recent stalling/reclaim zone at 135.85 (dist ~2.84%, within rv/atr band given 4h atr 4.3%); target the stretch down at 128.35 (dist ~2.84%, R:R ~1.0), a reachable level given avg_move_24h 6.8% and ongoing OI bleed. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors down but top-trader longs + positive funding cap conviction.
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