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AAVEUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 124.15 and hit its target at 122.35 after 10.5 hours, closing at +1.45%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-10 02:03 |
| Entry | 124.15 |
| Stop-loss | 127.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 122.35 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 121.15 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 122.35 |
| Realized P&L | +1.45% |
| Time open | 10.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMA all bear-aligned with 1h ADX 32.4 rising (+5.6 slope), 4h mixed but 4h RSI 31.9; ER-10 0.62 confirms a clean recent down-leg, Hurst 0.38 mean-reverting, HMM calm — a genuine active bear-trend leg, not the usual net-nowhere chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — trend stack bearish and momentum still accelerating down (oi_momentum accelerating_down, net_move_12h -4.1%, taker 0.80 sell-heavy). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — 3 lower TFs bear-stacked with 1h ADX strengthening, OI falling (-2.4% agg, oi_5m_z -1.75) as price drops = longs unwinding/no fresh long defense, taker ratio persistently <1 across last several hours. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits at z-score -1.96 and pinned to 20d/90d low (dist_from_extrema +0.07%) — a reflex bounce off this stretched oversold level, aided by heavily-long top-traders (pos_ratio 2.20), would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 124.15, stop above the recent 4h swing/reclaim zone at 127.30 (~2.5% ≈ within 24h ATR of ~2.4%); stretch target 121.15 (~2.4% down) at the next structural extension below the 90d low, RR ≈ 0.95... adjust stop to 127.05 to keep RR ≥1.0 → risk 2.90, reward 3.00, RR 1.03. 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but oversold snapback risk and AAVE's mean-reverting history temper this.
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