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AAVEUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 120.48 and hit its target at 118.722 after 6.5 hours, closing at +1.46%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 02:13 |
| Entry | 120.48 |
| Stop-loss | 123.15 |
| Take-profit 1 | 118.722 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 117.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 118.722 |
| Realized P&L | +1.46% |
| Time open | 6.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf mixed (5m/15m/1h all bear-aligned, 4h EMA-mixed), 1h ADX 26.1 with +3.62 rising slope, ADX-20 18.6, ER-10 0.48 / ER-30 0.43 / choppiness 45.4 / Hurst 0.32 — a firming bearish downthrust punching out of AAVE's usual chop, HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — persistent downdrift net_move_4h -1.55% / 12h -3.20% / 24h -5.93%, price at 5d/20d/90d lows (0.00% off), z-score -1.97, OI accelerating_down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: fresh persistent bear momentum with rising ADX + accelerating_down OI (oi_5m_z -1.80, oi_15m_z -1.84, agg_oi -6.33%) and taker sell pressure (1h ratio 0.898) — trend-aligned short at fresh lows, and this asset's recent short calls in this regime won repeatedly. 4. PRE-MORTEM: z-score -1.97 with RSI oversold (5m 21, 1h 30) and top-trader pos ratio 2.34 long — a mean-reversion bounce off the extended lows would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 120.48, stop above the recent 4h swing / EMA reclaim at 123.15 (~2.2% risk, within rv range), TP1 stretch at 117.55 (~2.4% below, ~1.1x risk to a fresh downside extension). 6. EXPECTATION: firm trend but stretched, so meaningful bounce risk.
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