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AAVEUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 119.998 and stopped out at 122.55 after 5.1 hours, closing at -2.13%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 23:43 |
| Entry | 119.998 |
| Stop-loss | 122.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 117.9592 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 116.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 122.55 |
| Realized P&L | -2.13% |
| Time open | 5.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA stacks bear-aligned, 1h ADX 35.99 but slope negative (-3.87, fading), ADX-20 30.7, ER-10 0.26 / ER-30 0.25 / choppiness 45.7, Hurst 0.38 — a decaying bear trend rolling back toward AAVE's usual chop; HMM calm 0.999. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — net_move_24h -1.90%, 4h +2.55% is a bounce but into overbought 5m RSI 73 / 15m RSI 67, taker ratio 0.884 (sellers still tilted), OI momentum accelerating_down (-1.33% recent half). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack on the two mid TFs plus OI bleeding on an accelerating_down state while a short-lived 4h bounce runs into overbought conditions; the pop is a sell-the-rip against a fading but still-down structure. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.40 (heavily long) plus the fresh +2.55% 4h upthrust — if that momentum extends and reclaims the 5d-high area, the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 119.998; stop 122.55 (above the recent bounce high / invalidation, ~2.1% — within the ~89 RV / 2.75% 4h ATR envelope); take_profit_1 116.60, a stretch back toward the 5d-low support zone, ~2.83% down, R:R ~1.33. 6. EXPECTATION: fading ADX and heavy top-trader longs cap conviction; p_tp1 44 / p_sl 38 / p_expire 18.
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