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AAVEUSD short — 28 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 146.4686 and stopped out at 150.12 after 2.2 hours, closing at -2.49%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-28 21:53 |
| Entry | 146.4686 |
| Stop-loss | 150.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 143.8474 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 142.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 150.12 |
| Realized P&L | -2.49% |
| Time open | 2.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Transitional/pullback — MTF 2/4 (5m/15m bear-aligned, 1h mixed, 4h still bull-aligned), 1h ADX 27.6 but fading (slope -1.09), choppiness 62.1 (range-bound), ER-10 0.10 (net-nowhere path), Hurst 0.52, HMM calm 0.999 — a mature 4h bull structure in a sharp near-term downdraft (-5.37% 24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but I lean SHORT near-term — near-term momentum down, OI bleeding (-8.3% Delta / -8.65% agg / oi_5m_z -1.39), taker ratio sub-1 (0.968), funding z negative and unwinding — consistent with the winning short attribution pattern on this asset. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — OI collapsing on the downmove with decelerating momentum and sub-1 takers signals long unwind rather than fresh accumulation; 5m/15m EMA stacks are bear-aligned, aligning near-term structure with the short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m RSI 32.5 / 15m 39.7 are oversold and top-trader pos ratio is heavily long (2.42) — a mean-reversion bounce or reclaim of the 1h EMA cluster (~$149) would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 146.47; stop above the near-term structure / 1h EMA reclaim at 150.10 (~2.48%, within ~0.6x rv_24h range); stretch target down at 142.10 (~2.98%, R:R ~1.2), a reachable structural level near the 5d-low zone within 24h given avg_move_24h 3.79%. 6. EXPECTATION: near-term down flow favored but oversold and long-heavy top traders temper it, meaningful expire risk given choppiness.
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