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AAVEUSD short — 17 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 150.48 and stopped out at 154.1 after 10.9 hours, closing at -2.41%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-17 16:54 |
| Entry | 150.48 |
| Stop-loss | 154.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 147.792 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 146 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 154.1 |
| Realized P&L | -2.41% |
| Time open | 10.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Calm transitional tape with a clear bear tilt — 5m/15m/1h EMA bear_aligned, 4h mixed; alignment 4/4 (all bear votes), mtf mixed label but downside-skewed; ADX_1h 19.5 slope +3.7 (trend building modestly), choppiness 34 (trending), ER-10 0.73 clean one-way down / ER-30 0.41, Hurst 0.49 neutral; price -3.58% 24h, net -2.46% 4h / -3.51% 12h — a fresh accelerating downdraft. 2. LEAN CHECK: Short lean — the near-term momentum, OI unwind and taker flow all point down, but RSI is deeply oversold (5m 20, 15m 21.7, 1h 27.8) which caps conviction; still, the dominant force is down. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Flow cluster is strongly bearish — oi_momentum accelerating_down with oi_5m_z -2.87, agg_OI -1.47%, latest taker ratio 0.42 (heavy sell), net -2.46% last 4h; this aligns with the bear EMA stack across lower TFs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: Deeply oversold RSI across all TFs + price only +1.77% above 5d/20d/90d low means an oversold mean-reversion bounce could snap the short — top-traders are net long (pos ratio 1.96), the contrarian risk. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 150.48; stop above the recent intraday reclaim level at 154.10 (~2.4% / ~0.9x atr-sized, below the 5d-high distance); target the 5d-low / round-number support zone at 146.00 (~2.98%), R:R ~1.24, inside clamps, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~3.08%. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold tape fights the short, so a healthy p_expire and non-trivial p_sl.
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