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AAVEUSD short — 22 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 146.0973 and stopped out at 149.62 after 9.2 hours, closing at -2.41%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-22 17:24 |
| Entry | 146.0973 |
| Stop-loss | 149.62 |
| Take-profit 1 | 143.6389 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 142 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 149.62 |
| Realized P&L | -2.41% |
| Time open | 9.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4, all TFs bear_aligned, ADX_1h 30.2 (genuine trend) slope -1.4 (mild fade), choppiness 46 neutral-ish, ER-10 0.43 / ER-30 0.40 semi-directional, Hurst 0.48 near-random, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: One-sided short lean — persistent down structure (net -8.09% 24h, -1.73% 4h, -2.25% 12h), at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_from_extrema 0.000 to low), rolling z -1.94. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — full_bearish stack with strong ADX, agg funding deeply negative (z -1.73) yet price still bleeding at lows means no exhaustion bounce, and this asset's bear-regime shorts recently won (+2.58%, +2.14%, +1.66%). 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 29.8 oversold + top-trader pos ratio 1.99 (heavy long skew) + bullish 1h taker 0.56 could spark a mean-revert bounce off the low that reclaims structure. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 146.10, stop above the recent swing/invalidation at 149.60 (2.40% — within atr/rv band given 1h atr 1.24% and 24h traversal 3.0%); stretch TP at 142.00 (2.80%, ~1.17x stop distance, inside clamps) targeting continuation toward a fresh low. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold tape at lows caps follow-through but trend favors continuation — p_tp1 46 / p_sl 36 / p_expire 18.
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