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AAVEUSD short — 29 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 120.3149 and hit its target at 116.45 after 1.4 hours, closing at +3.21%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-29 22:57 |
| Entry | 120.3149 |
| Stop-loss | 123.45 |
| Take-profit 1 | 117.996 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 116.45 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 116.45 |
| Realized P&L | +3.21% |
| Time open | 1.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Genuine bear trend — mtf full_bearish 4/4, all TFs bear_aligned, ADX_1h 23.4 slope +4.9 (strengthening), choppiness 32.3 (<38, trending), ER-10 0.61 clean short-run, Hurst 0.33 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.9999. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — violent fresh down impulse (net -10.4% 4h, -11.3% 24h), full bear MTF stack, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.91, oi_15m_z -2.28, agg OI -4.4%), top-trader pos ratio falling (-0.175 4h). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Flow+trend cluster — OI bleeding on accelerating_down while price fully bear-aligned is trend-confirming distribution; prior same-regime shorts won back-to-back (+3.57%, +3.43%) this hour. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI deeply oversold across all TFs (5m 23, 15m 17, 1h 23) + rolling_z -2.46 + sitting ON 20d/90d low → a mean-reversion bounce is the real risk, not continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 120.31; stop above the last micro lower-high / invalidation at 123.45 (~2.6% — within 1h atr 2.4% × bear run); target 116.45 (~3.2% down, R:R ~1.23) at a round structural extension below the fresh low. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce risk tempers continuation odds; p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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