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AAVEUSD short — 3 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 125.11 and stopped out at 128.3 after 6 hours, closing at -2.55%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-03 03:08 |
| Entry | 125.11 |
| Stop-loss | 128.3 |
| Take-profit 1 | 122.824 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 121.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.19 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 128.3 |
| Realized P&L | -2.55% |
| Time open | 6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear_aligned), ADX_1h 33.8 slope +5.4 (strengthening), choppiness 33.1 (<38 trending), ER-10 0.59/ER-30 0.47 (moderately clean), Hurst 0.39 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a genuine, firming bear trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — price -7.58% 24h, net_move -1.27% 4h / -7.64% 24h, full bearish stack with strengthening ADX. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend fully aligned bearish with firming ADX is the strongest cluster; OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -2.57, momentum accelerating_down) confirms longs bleeding out of a falling market — trend-aligned short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 24.5 oversold + z_score -1.85 + top_trader_pos_ratio 2.17 (heavily long) raise fade/bounce risk; a reclaim of ~128 with rising taker would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 125.11, stop above 128.30 (beyond recent structure / ~2.5% = ~0.9x the ~2.7% 4h-ATR scale), target stretch 121.30 (~3.05% down, structural toward 5d-low area), R:R ~1.2. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but oversold-stretch raises bounce odds and track record is only 56% — p_tp1 46, p_sl 39, p_expire 15.
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