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AAVEUSD short — 5 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 126.1573 and stopped out at 129.85 after 3.1 hours, closing at -2.93%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-05 16:08 |
| Entry | 126.1573 |
| Stop-loss | 129.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 123.9329 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 122.45 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 129.85 |
| Realized P&L | -2.93% |
| Time open | 3.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF bear_aligned on 5m/1h/4h (15m mixed), ADX_1h 20.2 slope +0.6 (weak trend, barely firming), choppiness 36 (<38, into trending), ER-10 0.46 / ER-30 0.17 (clean-ish short-run, noisy longer), Hurst 0.38 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a bear-stacked tape in a fresh down-impulse but with mean-reversion risk. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net_move -3.65%/4h, -4.95%/12h, -6.07%/24h, OI bleeding hard (-10.3% 24h, oi_15m_z -3.3, momentum accelerating_down) while price falls = genuine long liquidation/unwind, the classic trend-continuation signature this asset's wins keep printing. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the strongest cluster is flow — accelerating_down OI with price dropping confirms positions are being forcibly flushed, not a quiet rotation, and the HTF stack agrees; this aligns short. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 1.95 (very long) plus funding still positive (z +1.37) and price only +1.8% off 5d low means a sharp short-squeeze reclaim of ~129 would invalidate — the mean-reverting Hurst and this asset's long-win history warn here. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 126.16, stop above the recent reaction/invalidation at 129.85 (~2.9%, within the ~7-8% daily range), target the 5d-low region stretch at 122.45 (~2.94% = ~1.0x stop distance), inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: momentum favors continuation but mean-reversion + overbought-long top-traders temper it; p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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