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AAVEUSD short — 6 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on AAVEUSD entered at 130.0535 and stopped out at 133.1 after 9 hours, closing at -2.34%.
| Asset | AAVEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-06 05:38 |
| Entry | 130.0535 |
| Stop-loss | 133.1 |
| Take-profit 1 | 127.8314 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 126.35 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 133.1 |
| Realized P&L | -2.34% |
| Time open | 9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (1h/4h bear_aligned, 5m/15m mixed), ADX_1h 11.7 slope -1.79 (dead-weak, fading), choppiness 48.7 (mid), ER-30 0.065 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.36 mean-reverting, HMM calm 0.999 — a weakly bear-stacked but very low-trend-quality, chop-prone tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — bearish 1h/4h EMA stacks, OI bleeding (-7.2%/24h, agg -8.4%, oi_15m_z -1.28, momentum decelerating), taker 0.93 sub-1, funding z +1.35 (crowded longs vulnerable); net_move -1.34%/24h. This matches the winning short playbook on this asset. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — longs unwinding into a bear-stacked HTF with sub-1 taker ratio and elevated funding z, trend-aligned to the 1h/4h bear stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top_trader_pos_ratio 2.18 (heavily long) and Fear 28 + 5d_low only -5% away could spark a mean-reverting bounce (Hurst 0.36) that reclaims. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 130.05; stop above recent structure at 133.10 (~2.35%, well inside 1h atr 1.59% × multi-bar / 4h atr 3.16% range); target 126.35 (~2.85%, R:R ~1.21, inside clamps) toward the 5d-low zone. 6. EXPECTATION: chop-prone mean-reverting tape caps conviction — p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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