BTCUSD long — 2 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 63,528.1 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 63,187 with a price move of -0.54%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-02 02:15 |
| Entry | 63,528.1 |
| Stop-loss | 62,720 |
| Take-profit 1 | 64,255.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 64,740.2 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 63,187 |
| Realized P&L | -0.54% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (0/4 alignment), 1h EMA bear_aligned with ADX 21.9 fading (slope -1.56), Hurst ~0.49 mean-reverting, choppiness 31.8 (technically trending but efficiency_ratio_30 only 0.23), HMM calm, Fear&Greed 27 — a bear-tagged but transitional, energy-losing tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh momentum is UP — net_move_4h +1.12%, taker_1h 1.60 (latest bucket buying), top_trader_pos_ratio 1.60 long, price bounced off 5d/20d/90d low (+1.60% above it) with rolling z -0.81 (oversold-ish) — a modest long lean into a mean-reversion bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: counter-trend long supported by a low reclaim — sitting just above the 90d/20d low with a fresh +1.12% 4h push, taker buying, top traders net long 1.60x, and RSI on lower TFs already overbought (5m 87, 15m 79) showing buyers in control short-term; z-score -0.81 gives room to revert toward the mean. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI momentum is accelerating_down (oi_change_recent_half -0.44%, agg_oi flat-to-positive but shrinking Binance OI) — if the bounce is short-covering without fresh longs, it fails and rolls back to the lows. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the reclaim/low structure at 62,720 (below 5d-low region ~62,000-area buffer, beneath recent swing), entry 63,528; TP at 64,800 near the 5d-high zone (-2.3% distance) — reward ~1,272 vs risk ~808, R:R ~1.57. 6. EXPECTATION: counter-trend in a bear-tagged low-WR regime, lower TFs overbought risk fade — modest edge.
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