BTCUSD long — 7 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 65,093.1 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 64,955 with a price move of -0.21%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-07 11:27 |
| Entry | 65,093.1 |
| Stop-loss | 64,430 |
| Take-profit 1 | 65,547.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 65,850 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.14 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 64,955 |
| Realized P&L | -0.21% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish (all EMA stacks bull_aligned), ADX_1h 17.2 but slope +6.1 (strengthening), adx_20 16.6, choppiness 40.9 and ER_10 0.64 — a fresh, strengthening but still modest bull trend; HMM calm, Hurst 0.41 the mild mean-reversion caveat, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d high. 2. LEAN CHECK: unambiguously long-leaning — 4/4 alignment, price at multi-period highs (+0% off all highs, +4.1% off lows), net moves positive across 4h/12h (+1.24%), OI accelerating_up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend+flow confluence — OI momentum accelerating_up (5m z +1.88, agg OI 24h +0.29), top-trader pos ratio 1.56 long, and a fresh breakout to 5d/20d/90d high with rising ADX; ETF +$137.6M net inflow adds a macro tailwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: overbought RSI (5m 73.8, 15m 77.8, 1h 70.6) + rolling z +1.80 + Fear&Greed 29 fear suggest exhaustion; a rejection back below the breakout level invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 65,093; stop below the recent breakout shelf at 64,430 (~1.02% risk, within the ~20% rv_24h / 0.36% 1h atr traversal); stretch TP at 65,850 (~1.16% reward, R:R ~1.14, inside clamps) — a reachable structural extension given 24h avg traversal ~0.93% and fresh momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: modest-but-clean bull lean, overbought caveat tempers upside conviction.
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