BTCUSD long — 21 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 78,101.6 and stopped out at 76,650 after 2.4 hours, closing at -1.86%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-21 09:11 |
| Entry | 78,101.6 |
| Stop-loss | 76,650 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,330.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,150 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.41 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 76,650 |
| Realized P&L | -1.86% |
| Time open | 2.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 full_bullish, all TFs EMA bull_aligned, ADX_1h 72.6 with +3.5 slope (extreme trend still strengthening), choppiness 28.3 (strongly trending), ER_10 0.57/ER_30 0.61 (clean), Hurst 0.56 persistence, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a powerful intact bull trend up +8.7% on the day pinned at 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clear long lean — trend, flow, positioning all one way. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +2.24, oi_15m_z +4.10, agg_oi +8.7%), taker ratio 1.34 with top-trader pos ratio 1.82, ETF +$606M inflow yesterday, DXY soft; multiple prior same-regime longs just won +2-3%. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI extremely stretched (4h RSI 94.8, rolling z +3.64, RV 100th pctile) — a blow-off top / sharp mean-revert flush would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 78,101; stop below recent intraday structure at 76,650 (~1.86% risk, within the elevated 24h realized range); stretch TP at 80,150 (~2.62% up, R:R ~1.4, inside 4% clamp) — reachable given the trend momentum but not counting on another full leg given exhaustion risk. 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but overbought stretch caps upside probability.
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