BTCUSD long — 23 Aug 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 77,287.3 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 77,872 with a price move of +0.76%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-23 11:24 |
| Entry | 77,287.3 |
| Stop-loss | 76,190 |
| Take-profit 1 | 78,164.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,750 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 77,872 |
| Realized P&L | +0.76% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (transitional), ADX_1h 19.8 with -1.18 slope (weak/fading trend), choppiness 46.7 (borderline range), ER_10 0.036 / ER_30 0.013 (near-dead one-way efficiency — path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.56, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a stretched, decelerating structure chopping just below the 5d/20d/90d high (-2.5%). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest long lean — 4h and 1h EMA bull_aligned, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +1.81), taker 1.56 (buyers pressing latest hour), top-trader pos ratio 2.05 (heavy long), ETF inflows +$307M at 1.58x velocity; near-term net_move +1.67%/4h shows a fresh bounce. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned long — HTF EMA stack bullish plus flow (OI accelerating, ETF inflows, top-trader positioning long) supports continuation toward the 5d high just 2.5% overhead. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rsi_4h 71.6 overbought + rsi_5m 77 + funding_z +1.48 (crowded long) + inverted IV term structure signals exhaustion — a rejection at the 5d high rolls it over as the last short attempt did. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 77,287; stop below the recent swing/1h structure at 76,190 (~1.42% risk, ~0.5x of 24h avg 2.84% traversal); stretch target 78,750, a run toward the 5d high (~1.89% reward, R:R ~1.33, inside 1.5x and 4% clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop-risk and overbought stretch keep p_expire meaningful.
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