BTCUSD long — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 79,104.3 and stopped out at 78,010 after 11.1 hours, closing at -1.38%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 09:58 |
| Entry | 79,104.3 |
| Stop-loss | 78,010 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,983.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 80,570 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.34 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 78,010 |
| Realized P&L | -1.38% |
| Time open | 11.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/1h/15m EMA bull_aligned with 4h ADX 59.9 (strong HTF trend) but mtf_alignment mixed (2/4), 1h ADX 30.2 with -4.5 slope fading, choppiness 48.6, ER_10 0.037 (near-dead near-term), Hurst 0.51, HMM calm conf 1.0 — intact HTF bull structure now pulling back near the 5d/20d/90d high (-1.97%). 2. LEAN CHECK: net -1.97%/4h shows a fresh dip but 5m RSI 26.7 / 15m RSI 31.2 oversold into an intact bull structure — favors a long dip-buy over a short. 3. THESIS: HTF bull stack (4h ADX ~60, bull EMA across 4h/1h/15m), top-trader pos ratio 2.15 (long-skewed), BTC dominance rising, ETF net inflows $337.6M, funding only mildly positive (z 1.32) — the pullback into oversold lower-TF RSI is a buyable dip within an uptrend, and taker ratio 1.06 shows buyers already stepping back in. 4. PRE-MORTEM: adx_1h_slope negative + ER_10 near zero + net -1.97%/4h means momentum has genuinely rolled; a break below the recent swing invalidates the dip thesis and confirms a deeper unwind. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 79,104; stop below the local swing/oversold shelf at 78,010 (~1.38% risk, within the ~3.17% 24h traversal and rv percentile); stretch target 80,570 (~1.85% / R:R ~1.34x) at the reclaim toward the 5d high. 6. EXPECTATION: intact HTF bull + oversold dip but fading near-term momentum and a stretched position keep this a modest-edge dip-buy.
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