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BTCUSD long — 21 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 81,747.8 and stopped out at 80,850 after 1.4 hours, closing at -1.10%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-21 00:25 |
| Entry | 81,747.8 |
| Stop-loss | 80,850 |
| Take-profit 1 | 82,397.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 82,830 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 80,850 |
| Realized P&L | -1.10% |
| Time open | 1.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 bull-aligned EMA stack (5m/15m/1h/4h), 1h ADX 23.7 (genuine trend) but slope -2.5 (fading), 4h ADX 38 strong, choppiness 45 (mid), ER_10 0.48 vs ER_30 0.066 (recent lean but longer path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.63 (persistent), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm bull tape sitting at its 5d/20d/90d high. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans LONG — trend-aligned across all TFs, price pinned at 90d high (dist -0.086%), positive net_move 4h/12h. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend cluster (4/4 EMA + Hurst 0.63 + at 90d high with fresh net_move_4h +0.83%) plus positioning tilt (top_trader_pos_ratio 2.10 heavily long, taker 1.08, ETF +$433M last published day) — this is a firming breakout at highs. 4. PRE-MORTEM: rolling_z +1.89 stretched, RSI 71/70 overbought on 5m/4h, funding_z -0.98 unwinding, oi_momentum accelerating_down and adx slope negative — an exhaustion fade from the 90d high would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 81,748; stop below the recent breakout shelf at 80,850 (~1.1% risk, ~0.7x rv-scaled 24h range, beyond the intraday invalidation); stretch TP at 82,830 (~1.32% up, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps) — a push into fresh highs the trend points to. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought + fading ADX caps upside odds but trend/positioning favor continuation.
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