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BTCUSD long — 22 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 86,374.8 and stopped out at 84,980 after 22.3 hours, closing at -1.61%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-22 15:53 |
| Entry | 86,374.8 |
| Stop-loss | 84,980 |
| Take-profit 1 | 87,379.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 88,050 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.20 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 84,980 |
| Realized P&L | -1.61% |
| Time open | 22.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bullish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bull EMA), 1h ADX 39 slope -3.3 (strong but fading), 4h ADX 49 with 4h RSI 76.7 overbought, Hurst 0.63 persistent, choppiness 60 (edging chop), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a strong bull trend now decelerating and stretched at highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans LONG on trend structure but with real caution — price -0.7% off its 5d/20d/90d high, rolling z +2.11 (stretched), extreme greed 78. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend alignment is the strongest cluster — full bull stack + high 4h ADX + persistent Hurst + top-trader position ratio 2.22 heavily long; trend-aligned long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: momentum is fading (ADX slope -3.3, OI decelerating -0.9% 24h, taker ratio 0.857 <1 = net selling last hour, funding_momentum negative) — a rejection at the 5d high without buyer follow-through invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 86,375; stop below recent structure at 84,980 (~1.6% risk, ~0.5x rv_24h — reasonable); stretch TP at 88,050 (~1.9% up, RR ~1.2), an honest push toward/through the 5d high within 24h, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: fading momentum and overbought 4h temper the upside; p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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