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BTCUSD long — 30 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 85,369.1 and stopped out at 84,180 after 34 minutes, closing at -1.39%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-30 13:05 |
| Entry | 85,369.1 |
| Stop-loss | 84,180 |
| Take-profit 1 | 86,245.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 86,830 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 84,180 |
| Realized P&L | -1.39% |
| Time open | 34 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (5m/15m/4h bull, 1h EMA mixed), 1h ADX 19.4 slope +5.9 (firming), choppiness 35.4 (<38, trending), ER_10 0.60 (clean recent path) vs ER_30 0.20, Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting longer), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a fresh accelerating up-impulse off the 5d-low with a strong 4h push. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans LONG — net_move_4h +2.07% / 12h +2.30%, OI accelerating_up (oi_5m_z +6.0, oi_15m_z +7.0), taker 1.33 buy-tilted, top-trader pos ratio 1.92 heavily long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_up OI momentum with fresh buy-side taker pressure and top-traders leaning long, aligned with the 4h bull EMA stack and firming ADX; price is at the 5d-high (+0.00 from it), a fresh momentum breakout. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought on 5m (77) and 15m (87), RV at 98th percentile — an exhaustion fade back through the breakout level would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 85,369; stop below the intraday reclaim/breakout base at 84,180 (~1.39% risk, within the ~2.2% daily range); stretch TP at 86,830 (~1.71% reward, R:R ~1.23, inside 4% clamp) targeting continuation to new local highs. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought stretch tempers p_tp1; base rate on this asset ~61% wr but exhaustion risk real.
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