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BTCUSD long — 9 Oct 2026 (expired)
This long on BTCUSD entered at 82,684.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 82,790 with a price move of +0.13%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-09 13:50 |
| Entry | 82,684.2 |
| Stop-loss | 81,480 |
| Take-profit 1 | 83,425.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 83,920 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 82,790 |
| Realized P&L | +0.13% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 (5m bull-aligned, 15m/4h mixed, 1h bear-aligned), 1h ADX 23.5 slope -0.56 (modest trend, fading), ER_10 0.16 / ER_30 0.03 (noisy path netting nowhere), choppiness 41, Hurst 0.47 mean-reverting, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a broad bear/chop with no clean directional engine, price sitting rolling_z -1.33 below the 20d mean. 2. LEAN CHECK: tape is near two-sided — 1h bear-aligned and total mcap -3.7% 24h favors short, but price is stretched below mean (z -1.33), sits +2.46% off all lows and -4.5% from highs, taker 1h 0.81 (sellers), yet top-traders long 1.53 pos ratio and 24h net move is +0.68% (bounce). The modest edge: lower-TF bounce is clean-ish (5m bull) off a stretched-oversold reading inside a fading 1h bear — a mean-reversion long lean. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: rolling_z -1.33 + dist off lows +2.46% + 12h net +0.92% up + fading bear ADX = a reclaim/mean-revert bounce; top-trader positioning long (1.53) corroborates the smart-money bias. 4. PRE-MORTEM: taker 1h 0.81 shows active selling and OI falling (-3.6%); if sellers push through the +2.46% low cushion the bounce fails and the 1h bear trend reasserts. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below recent swing / near 5d-low area at 81,480 (below mark, ~1.46% risk, within 24h RV range); stretch target up to 83,920, reclaiming the broken level, RR ~1.49x inside clamp and under 4%. 6. EXPECTATION: thin-but-real counter-trend mean-reversion long against a fading bear; honest distribution favors a meaningful expire share given choppy ER.
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