BTCUSD short — 10 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 63,878.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 63,351.5 with a price move of +0.82%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-10 18:53 |
| Entry | 63,878.5 |
| Stop-loss | 64,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 63,111.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 62,600 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.42 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 63,351.5 |
| Realized P&L | +0.82% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear_aligned, 1h mixed, 4h still bull_aligned), ADX_1h 34.9 with slope +4.0 (down-trend strengthening on lower TFs), adx_20 26.6, choppiness 35.3 (trending), ER_10 0.72 clean but ER_30 0.29, Hurst 0.27 (strong mean-reversion), HMM calm — a fresh, efficient down-impulse inside a mean-reverting broader tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — net_move negative across 4h -1.12% / 12h -2.15% / 24h -1.99%, OI accelerating_down (5m/15m z ~-1.0), agg_oi -2.75%, taker ratio 0.985 (mildly sell-side), price pinned at 5d/20d/90d low. 3. THESIS: fresh momentum-confirmed down-impulse (efficient ER_10 0.72, choppiness 35 trending, ADX rising) with OI bleeding as price makes new 5d low — a sell-side unwind aligned with 5m/15m bear stacks. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m/1h RSI deeply oversold (24/26), Hurst 0.27, 4h still bull_aligned, top-trader pos ratio 1.62 long — a snap-back reclaim above ~64,400 invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 63,878.51; stop above the 4h bull structure / reclaim at 64,780 (~1.41% risk); target the next support flush at 62,600, ~2.00% below, R:R ~1.4 within clamps and reachable given rv_24h 24% / 24h traversal ~0.67% typical but p90 range 3.36%. 6. EXPECTATION: efficient impulse favors continuation but oversold RSI + mean-reverting Hurst + long top-traders cap it.
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