BTCUSD short — 6 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 79,606.3 and stopped out at 80,523 after 8.2 hours, closing at -1.15%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-06 15:31 |
| Entry | 79,606.3 |
| Stop-loss | 80,523 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,028.9 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 78,644 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 80,523 |
| Realized P&L | -1.15% |
| Time open | 8.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull EMA), 1h ADX 15.6 slope +2.1 (weak/chop), choppiness 50.9 mid, ER_30 0.001 (net-nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.49, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a directionless transitional chop with a soft downside tilt underneath. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term flow leans DOWN modestly — net -0.35%/4h, taker ratio 0.81 (sellers), agg OI -0.74% and Binance OI z -1.7/-1.99 with oi_momentum accelerating_down (longs bleeding out), funding z -1.65 (already de-leveraged). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI with sub-1.0 taker ratio and negative agg-OI delta means the market is unwinding longs into weakness, trend-aligned with the 5m bear stack even as 1h/4h EMAs lag. 4. PRE-MORTEM: reclaim of the 5d high area (mark +2.6% away) or funding-z snapping back positive with OI re-building would invalidate the down lean; top_trader pos_ratio 2.0 (heavily long) is a contradicting cluster that could mean a squeeze up. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 79,606; stop above recent intraday resistance and the fresh 4h swing at 80,520 (~1.15%); target down toward the 5d-low zone / support at 78,650 (~1.20%), R:R ~1.05, within atr/rv-24h reach. 6. EXPECTATION: rv_24h low (pctile 20%) so plenty of range but chop caps clean traversal — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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