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BTCUSD short — 20 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on BTCUSD entered at 80,669.1 and stopped out at 81,780 after 21.6 hours, closing at -1.38%.
| Asset | BTCUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-20 02:45 |
| Entry | 80,669.1 |
| Stop-loss | 81,780 |
| Take-profit 1 | 79,847.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 79,300 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 81,780 |
| Realized P&L | -1.38% |
| Time open | 21.6 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 alignment (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h/4h bull-aligned EMA), 1h ADX 40.4 but slope -5.7 (strong trend fading), choppiness 40.0 (edging trending), ER_10 0.73 (clean recent one-way) but ER_30 0.09 / Hurst 0.56 (nets nowhere longer horizon), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a decelerating pullback within a still-bullish 1h/4h stack. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term momentum is DOWN (net -0.70%/4h, -1.09%/12h, taker 0.58 heavily sell, OI accelerating_down z -2.68), but 1h/4h EMA remain bull-aligned and top-trader pos ratio 2.06 still very long — a two-sided read; the sharpest fresh evidence (aggressive taker selling + OI puking + fading ADX) leans SHORT for the immediate leg. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster dominates — taker_buy_sell 0.578 (strongest sell hour of the day), oi_momentum accelerating_down with oi_5m_z -2.68 (positions unwinding into weakness), 4h RSI rolling over from 65, price -1.39% off 5d high; a counter-trend fade of an exhausting up-move that has not reclaimed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: reclaim of ~81,400 (the 5d-high shelf) with taker ratio flipping >1 would negate the short and resume the bull trend where top-traders are heavily positioned. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 80,669; stop above the recent shelf/invalidation at 81,780 (~1.38% risk, within rv/atr range); take_profit_1 stretch at 79,300, a structural support below (~1.70% reward, R:R ~1.23, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: fresh flow favors down but bull EMA stack and heavy top-trader longs cap conviction and raise reversal odds.
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